Penulis: Agus S

Loyalists hope for boost after apparent victory, but political divisions and 7 October security failures still loom large

WhenBenjamin Netanyahudescribed the opportunities for peace that Israel’s successes in its brief war with Iran might bring, supporters took him at his word.

“This victory presents an opportunity for a dramatic widening of peace agreements. We are working on this with enthusiasm,” Israel’s longest-serving prime ministersaid on Thursday in a pre-recorded statement.

Critics of the 75-year-old leader saw something else.

“Whatever he does, he tries to turn everything to his advantage … This is a guy who never takes responsibility but only credit … Everything is opportunistic and everything is transactional,” said Prof Yossi Mekelberg at Chatham House in London.

Quite how long Netanyahu will stay in power is now a burning question inIsrael, as the country recovers from the rollercoaster of fear and elation of the last weeks.

With the Iran war apparently over, the conflict in Gaza has returned to the headlines. On the day after the US declared a ceasefire,seven Israeli soldiers diedin an attack on an outdated armoured vehicle in the south of the devastated territory, prompting further urgent calls within Israel for the hostilities there to be brought to a close.

Back in the headlines, too, are the deep divisions in Israeli society and within the coalition Netanyahu put together after elections in November 2022. This is themost rightwing governmentever seen in Israel, and has survived multiple challenges since the 7 October 2023 Hamas raid into Israel, in which militants killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took another 251 hostage.

For Prof Tamar Hermann, a specialist in public opinion at theIsrael Democracy Institute, the war has changed little in terms of Israel’s polarised domestic politics.

“Netanyahu’s supporters support him even more and opponents oppose him like before. They see the [war against Iran] as very successful but don’t credit Netanyahu. He gets some points … but not so many,” Hermann said.

Netanyahu loyalists hope for a major boost in the polls.

Udi Tenne, a strategic adviser and campaign manager for ministers in the current government, said: “The operation [against Iran] led by Prime Minister Netanyahu was unquestionably justified, but it also, undeniably, benefited him politically. To put it metaphorically, the missiles launched at Iran also landed on the Israeli opposition.”

A key question is whether the perceived victory over Iran will convince enough voters to forget thatthe 2023 attack– Israel’s worst ever security failure – not only occurred on Netanyahu’s watch but can be attributed in part to policies he had pursued over a decade or more.

“Since that horrific day, Israel’s security situation has dramatically improved: the Iranian threat has been neutralised, Syria has collapsed, [the Lebanese militant group] Hezbollah has been severely damaged, and Gaza lies dismantled. We are living through a profound security transformation – and for that, great credit is due to the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] and to the government,” said Tenne.

Others are less convinced, andrecent pollsare inconclusive. The relatively minor gains made by Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party have largely been at the expense of other coalition parties, notably the far right, and would not necessarily guarantee a win at any election.

And a requirement for a 90-day gap between a dissolution of parliament and new elections means a snap poll would be a big risk for Netanyahu, even if his personal ratings have risen.

“People are going to give Netanyahu a lot of credit for the operation against Iran and polls show this. But they haven’t forgotten [the 7 October attack] and politics have not become less divisive,” said Lahav Harkov, a senior political correspondent at the US-based Jewish Insider.

Netanyahu’s tactical instincts have never been in doubt throughout his long and controversial career. They are still admired by his supporters and bitterly regretted by detractors. “One of his greatest political talents is he knows how to delay and come up with temporary workarounds so he can live another day,” said Harkov.

Advisers to leaders of Israel’s opposition parties said last week they were encouraged by recent polls and believed that the many other issues that have riled voters – persistent corruption allegations, Netanyahu’s ongoing graft trial, a bitter row over whether Orthodox Jews should be exemption from conscription and the rising cost of living – will come to the fore as new elections loom.

Others point out that Netanyahu’s political base is far from monolithic, and that his comments about thecost to his familyof the recent conflict have provoked much anger.

Netanyahu’s political demise has been often predicted, most recently in October 2023. However, he has not only retained power but consistently outmanoeuvred rivals and opponents. A bid to bring down his government was only narrowly defeated a day before he launched Israel’s warplanes against Iran.

“He desperately needed some success. I don’t think it was a coincidence that it happened as he was being cross-examined in his corruption trial,” said Mekelberg.

Loyalists have no doubt who will be in charge in the coming years. “He has returned to power with a firm grip,” said Tenne. “If David Ben-Gurion declared Israel’s independence, then it is Benjamin Netanyahu who is now securing its future.”

Netanyahu appears convinced, too. With only weeks of the parliamentary term to go before a three-month summer recess, he has at least bought himself time until the late autumn.

“I have many more objectives, and as long as I believe I can fulfil them, I will,”he saidlast week.

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Latest deaths come amid worsening humanitarian situation despite renewed hope for ceasefire

At least 62 people have been killed in Gaza by overnight Israeli strikes, according to health officials, as the humanitarian situation worsens in the besieged strip despite renewed hope for a ceasefire.

Airstrikes began overnight on Friday and continued into Saturday morning, killing a dozen people near a displacement shelter near Palestine Stadium inGazaCity. A strike at midday on Saturday killed at least 11 people.

A displaced family in a tent was killed in an Israeli strike in al-Mawasi, southern Gaza, while they were sleeping.

Israel’s war in Gaza has killed more than 56,000 people, half of whom are women and children, local health authorities say.

Famine-like conditions reign in Gaza after a two-and-a-half month blockade imposed by Israel on all food until late May, since when Israel has allowed only a dribble of humanitarian aid into the strip.

Israel launched the war in Gaza after Hamas terrorists attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, killing about 1,200 people and taking about 250 people hostage.

The latest killings come as a ceasefire in Gaza seems within reach, with Donald Trump saying on Friday that an agreement could come within a week. “I think it’s close,” the US president said. “I just spoke to some of the people involved. We think within the next week we’re going to get a ceasefire.”

Reports say Israel’s minister for strategic affairs, Ron Dermer, will visit Washington next week to discuss the ceasefire, among other topics.

The recent ceasefire with Iran, which ended a 12-day conflict that Israel perceived to be a great success, might provide breathing room for long-stalled peace talks. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said on Thursday: “Along with releasing our hostages and defeating Hamas, there is an opportunity, a window of opportunity has opened and it can’t be missed. Not even a single day can be wasted.”

Fighting started anew in Gaza in March, when Israel restarted its war after refusing to move to a second phase of a January ceasefire that could have led to a more permanent truce. Negotiations since then have so far been fruitless, with Hamas insisting on a total end to the war in Gaza – a demand Israel has rejected.

Since the breakdown of the March ceasefire, more than 6,000 people have been killed in Gaza. Israel, for its part, says its aim for continuing the war is to return about 50 hostages who remain in Gaza, 30 of whom are presumed to be dead. Hamas has said it is willing to free all the hostages if there is a permanent truce, but Netanyahu wants the militant group to be completely dismantled in Gaza.

The most recent US proposal for a ceasefire involved a 60-day pause in fighting and renewed talks to achieve long-term peace, in addition to the release of half of all living hostages and half of the deceased. Hamas previously requested amendments to the proposal to release fewer hostages and for a permanent truce, which was rejected by the US Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, at the end of May.

As ceasefire talks have languished, humanitarian conditions in Gaza have sharply deteriorated. Unicef said last week that 60% of water production facilities in Gaza were out of order and that there was a 50% increase in acute child malnutrition from April to May.

Scenes of chaos unfold every day as crowds of hungry Palestinians have had to walk miles and contend with confusing sets of rules to access food, now distributed from set points run by the private American initiative the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

More than 500 people have been shot dead by Israeli forces as they have attempted to get aid from GHF distribution points, with witnesses accusing Israeli soldiers of shooting directly at crowds. The Israeli military said it was investigating such incidents.

Fifteen international human rights organisations have called on the GHF to halt its operations in Gaza, saying it risks being complicit in war crimes. The organisations also accused the GHF of violating the principles of neutrality and independence, cornerstones of humanitarian work.

Vessel that sank in storm off Sicily last year killing seven people is being examined by investigators

The first images of the inside of the superyacht Bayesian, whichsank in a stormoff Sicily last year killing seven people including the tech tycoon Mike Lynch and his teenage daughter, have emerged in Italian media.

The hulk of the 56-metre (184ft) vesselwas raised from the seabednear Porticello last week and taken to the port of Termini Imerese, where it is being examined by investigators working to determine how and why it sank.

Four photographs, obtained by Italy’s state broadcaster, Rai, show the damage done to the Bayesian and its once-luxurious interior. One of the boat’s reception areas is mud-soaked, cluttered and ruined, its upholstered sofas and chairs torn and stained.

Another shows an open hatchway leading down from the deck, while a side view of the hull and one of the vessel’s propellers reveals some of the mud that accumulated during its 10-month spell beneath the waves.

The Bayesian was anchored near the port of Porticello when it sank during a violent storm shortly before dawn on 19 August 2024. Lynch had been enjoying a voyage around Sicily with his family and some friends celebrating his acquittal in a long-running fraud case regarding the sale of the technology company he founded, Autonomy, to Hewlett-Packard in 2011.

Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter, Hannah, died, as did a lawyer, Chris Morvillo, and his wife, Neda; Jonathan Bloomer, a banker, and his wife, Judy; and the yacht’s chef, Recaldo Thomas. Nine other crew members and six guests were rescued.

Investigators hope the yacht will yield clues to the causes of the sinking. A forensic examination will seek to determine whether one of the hatches remained open and whether the keel was improperly raised.

According to a preliminary safety report released last month by the UK’s Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB), the Bayesian may have been vulnerable to high winds when running on its engine. These “vulnerabilities” were “unknown to either the owner or the crew” as they were not included in the stability information book onboard.

The MAIB said a possible “tornadic waterspout” headed towards the boats in the harbour. The docks seemed to divert the whirlwind, which went straight towards the Bayesian, and the vessel sank within a few seconds.

Prosecutors have opened an inquiry into suspected manslaughter. The boat’s captain, James Cutfield, from New Zealand, and two British crew members,Tim Parker Eaton and Matthew Griffiths, have been placed under investigation. In Italy, this does not imply guilt or mean that formal charges will necessarily follow.

The family of Thomas, a Canadian-Antiguan national, have said they were waiting to see what the MAIB experts found.

“Lessons need to be learned from this tragedy, as well as establishing the truth of what happened and bringing those responsible to justice,” said James Healy-Pratt, a partner at Keystone Law, which is representing the Thomas family.

Inquest proceedings in the UK are looking at the deaths of Mike and Hannah Lynch as well as those of Jonathan and Judy Bloomer.

The complex operation to salvage the Bayesian was temporarily suspended in mid-May afterRob Cornelis Maria Huijben, a 39-year-old Dutch diver, died during underwater work.

Additional reportingLorenzo Tondo

Authorities in Spain, Portugal, Greece and France issue extreme heat, wildfire and health warnings

Authorities acrossEuropeare on alert as the first heatwave of the summer pushes temperatures up to 42C (107.6F), as the fastest-warming continent continues to suffer the effects of the climate emergency.

Spain’s state meteorological office, Aemet,issueda special heat warning on Friday, saying temperatures could reach 42C in some southern areas of the country over the coming days.

“Very high and persistent temperatures are expected, both during the day and at night, which could pose a risk to exposed and/or vulnerable people,” Aemet said.

Madrid’s health ministry alsowarnedpeople to take extra care in the heat, reminding them to stay out of the sun, keep hydrated and pay close attention to those who are older, pregnant or who have chronic health conditions.

Two-thirds ofPortugalwill be on high alert on Sunday for extreme heat and forest fires as temperatures of up to 42C are expected in Lisbon.

As temperatures in Marseille approach 40C, authorities in France’s second-largest city have ordered public swimming pools to be made free of charge to help residents beat the Mediterranean heat.

With peaks of 39C expected in Naples and Palermo, Sicily has ordered a ban on outdoor work in the hottest hours of the day, as has the Liguria region in northern Italy. The country’s trade unions are campaigning to extend the measure to other regions.

In Venice – which has played host to thelavish three-day wedding celebrationsof Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and his wife, Lauren Sánchez, guests, visitors and protesters are feeling the heat.

“I try not to think about it, but I drink a lot of water and never stay still, because that’s when you get sunstroke,” Sriane Mina, an Italian student, told Agence France-Presse in the city.

As temperatures inGreeceapproached 40C, a large wildfire broke out south of Athens on Thursday, leading authorities to issue evacuation orders and shut down parts of the coastal road linking the Greek capital to Sounion, location of the ancient Temple of Poseidon, a major tourist attraction.

The heatwave follows a series of broken extreme-heat records, including Europe’s hottest March ever, according to the EU’sCopernicusclimate monitor. As a result of the planet’s warming, extreme weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, floods and heatwaves, have become more frequent and intense, scientists warn.

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Last year was the hottest in recorded history so far and led to worldwide disasters, costing more than $300bn (£219bn). A Lancet Public Health study published last year found that heat deaths in Europecould triple by the end of the century, with the numbers rising disproportionately in southern countries such as Italy, Greece and Spain.

Deaths from warm weather could kill 129,000 people a year if temperatures rise to 3C above preindustrial levels. Today, heat-related deaths in Europe stand at 44,000.

But the yearly death toll from cold and heat in Europe may rise from 407,000 people today to 450,000 in 2100, even if world leaders meet their global heating target of 1.5C, the study found.

Agence France-Presse and Associated Press contributed to this report

Crackdown on Pride is part of effort to curb democratic freedoms ahead of a hotly-contested election next year

Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets of Budapest in defiance of the Hungarian government’s ban onPride, heeding a call by the city’s mayor to “come calmly and boldly to stand together for freedom, dignity and equal rights”.

Jubilant crowds packed into the city’s streets on Saturday, waving Pride flags and signs that mocked the country’s prime minister,Viktor Orbán, as their peaceful procession inched forward at a snail’s pace.

Organisers estimated that a record number of people turned up, far outstripping the expected turnout of 35,000-40,000 people.“We believe there are 180,000 to 200,000 people attending,” the president of Pride, Viktória Radványi told AFP. “It is hard to estimate because there have never been so many people at Budapest Pride.”

Themass demonstrationagainst the government was a bittersweet marking of Budapest Pride’s 30th anniversary; while the turnout on Saturday was expected to reach record levels, it had come after the government had doubled down on its targeting of the country’s LGBTQ+ community.

“We came because they tried to ban it,” said Timi, 49. The Hungarian national was marching with her daughter, Zsófi, 23, who had travelled from her home in Barcelona to join the rally.

After the ruling Fidesz party, led by the rightwing populist Orbán,fast-trackeda law that made it an offence to hold or attend events that involve the “depiction or promotion” of homosexuality to minors, many Hungarians vowed to show their disapproval by attending Pride for the first time.

Viki Márton was among those who had made good on the promise, turning up with her nine-year-old daughter.

The pair had come equipped with hats, water spray, and a swimsuit, more worried about heat than rightwing protesters. “I want her to see the reality,” said Márton. “And I’m so excited to be here!”

Earlier this month, police announced theywould follow the government’s ordersand ban the march. The progressive mayor of Budapest, Gergely Karácsony, was swift to respond, saying that the march would instead go ahead as a separate municipal event, with Karácsony describing it as a way to circumvent the need for official authorisation.

On Saturday, the mayor reiterated why the city had decided to host the event, hinting at how the march had become a symbol of discontent against a government that haslong faced criticismfor weakening democratic institutions and gradually undermining the rule of law.

“The government is always fighting against an enemy against which they have to protect Hungarian people,” said Karácsony.

“This time, it is sexual minorities that are the target … we believe there should be no first and second class citizens, so we decided to stand by this event.”

Akos Horvath, 18, who had travelled two hours from his city in southernHungaryto take part in the march, described it as an event of “symbolic importance”.

Speaking to news agency AFP, he added: “It’s not just about representing gay people, but about standing up for the rights of the Hungarian people.”

The sentiment was echoed by fellow marcher Eszter Rein-Bódi. “This is about much more, not just about homosexuality,” Rein-Bódi told Reuters “This is the last moment to stand up for our rights.”

Tens of thousands of Hungarians, including senior citizens and parents with their children, plus politicians and campaigners from 30 countries, took to the streets on Saturday, despite Orbán’s warning on Friday that those who attend or organise the march will face “legal consequences”.

The Hungarian prime minister sought to minimise concerns over violence, however, saying that Hungary was a “civilised country” and police would not “break it up … It cannot reach the level of physical abuse”.

Still, in a video posted to social media this week, the country’s justice minister, Bence Tuzson, warned the Budapest mayor that organising a banned event or encouraging people to attend is punishable by up to a year in prison.

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Speaking to reporters on Friday, the mayor brushed off the threat and downplayed concerns that police would later impose heavy fines on attende s. “Police have only one task tomorrow: to guarantee the safety and security of those gathered at the event,” said Karácsony.

The potential for violence had been amplified after three groups with ties to the extreme right said they were planning counter-marches. As the Pride march got under way, local news site Telexreported that the routeof the march had to be changed after one of these groups blocked off a bridge.

Analysts had described the government’s bid to crackdown on Pride as part of a wider effort to curb democratic freedoms ahead of a hotly contested national election next year.

Orbán is facing an unprecedented challenge from a former member of the Fidesz party’s elite, Péter Magyar, leading Pride organisers to suggest they arebeing scapegoatedas Orbán scrambles toshore up supportamong conservative voters.

Orbán’s government had also prompted concerns across Hungary and beyond after itsaid it would usefacial recognition software to identify people attending any banned events, potentially fining them up to €500 (£425).

Ahead of the march, as campaigners scrambled for clarity on whether or how this technology would be used, AFP reported that newly installed cameras had appeared on the lamp-posts that dotted the planned route.

The threat had been enough to rattle some. Elton, 30, a Brazilian living in Hungary wore a hat and sunglasses as he took part on Saturday, explaining that he had been worried about jeopardising his job and immigration status, but that his Hungarian boyfriend had persuaded him to attend.

“This is my second time at Pride, but the first time I feel insecure about it,” he said.

Mici, a 21-year-old Budapest resident, said she had attended Pride marches in the past but this time had weighed whether to join in after she was spooked by reports of the facial recognition system.

“At first, I was scared to come out because of the news, but I feel safe with so many people.”

She hoped that the massive turnout for the march would be enough to push the Orbán government to change its stance.

“I think the crowd that has come from acrossEurope, the record numbers, will make Hungarian people see that this cause is well-supported.”

Saturday evening’s bash set to take place in Arsenale, a former medieval shipyard in eastern district of city

Newlyweds Amazon founderJeff Bezosand journalist Lauren Sánchez left their luxury hotel on Venice’s Grand canal on Saturday for a final night of partying, crowning a three-day star-studded wedding extravaganza.

Bezos, 61, and Sanchez, 55, exchanged rings on Friday evening on the small island of San Giorgio, across the water from St Mark’s Square, accompanied by singing from Matteo Bocelli, son of Italian tenor Andrea Bocelli.

Bill Gates, Leonardo DiCaprio, Orlando Bloom, Tom Brady, Jordan’s Queen Rania, Oprah Winfrey, Kris Jenner and Kim and Khloé Kardashian, as well as Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, were among the A-listers present.

Saturday’s evening bash – wrapping up celebrations for 200-250 guests estimated to have cost $50m (£37m) – was due to take place in the Arsenale, a former medieval shipyard in an eastern district of the lagoon city.

About 1,000 people marched against the event on Saturday, groups of activists and residents who objected to the wedding and to seeingVenicebeing gift-wrapped for the uber-wealthy.

Some guests were seen leaving the Gritti Palace hotel in central Venice wearing their pyjamas, sometimes beneath colourful dressing gowns, before boarding small boats to reach the party.

Bezos and Sánchez had a more sober style. He was sporting a black shirt and suit, while she wore a soft-pink off-the-shoulder dress. They kissed on the boat while greeting those around them.

At the ceremony the bride wore a high-necked silhouette dress and a tulle and lace veil by Dolce & Gabbana, which she told Vogue magazine was based on Sophia Loren’s dress to marry Cary Grant in the 1958 film, Houseboat.

Sánchez was also wearing a pair of diamond earrings by Dolce & Gabbana, which, according to Vogue, was lent to her in keeping with the tradition that it brings good luck for a bride to wear something borrowed.

Bezos, who is No 4 on Forbes’ global billionaires list, donned a black tuxedo and bow tie over a white shirt.

Friday’s ceremony had no legal status under Italian law, a senior city hall official told Reuters, suggesting the couple may have previously wed legally in the United States to avoid the bureaucracy associated with an Italian marriage.

While some residents and activists raged against Bezos as a symbol of inequality and arrogance, Venetian businesses and political leaders welcomed the luxury nuptials, hailing them as a major boost for the local economy.

“Those who protest are in contradiction with the history of Venice, which is a history of relations, contacts and business,” mayor Luigi Brugnaro told Reuters.

“Bezos embodies the Venetian mentality. He is more Venetian than the protesters,” said the centre-right mayor, adding that he hoped Bezos, who donated €3m (£2.5m) to local institutions, would return to the city to do business.

Brugnaro said Bezos had attached no conditions to holding his wedding celebrations in Venice, and city hall had only learned about his donations after they had been made.

Bezos, Amazon’s executive chair, got engaged to Sánchez in 2023, four years after the collapse of his 25-year marriage to novelist and philanthropist MacKenzie Scott.

Work to upgrade facilities at Bunnings and Officeworks sites is expected to be completed by the end of this year

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Wesfarmers has secured a $100m loan with the government’sClean Energy Finance Corporationto install more solar panels, batteries and EV chargers at its Bunnings and Officeworks stores.

The chief executive of the CEFC, Ian Learmonth, said he hoped the financing package at the high-profile stores would help create a “ripple effect” through the commercial sector, where the uptake of rooftop solar has been slower than across residential properties.

The financing package, to be paid back by Wesfarmers over seven years at a competitive interest rate, would help accelerate the group’s decarbonisation plans, Learmonth said.

“As a leading Australian company with these household brand names, we can provide them with competitive finance that’s allowing them to meet a business case to deliver roof top solar, battery storage, various energy efficiency initiatives and putting EV chargers in,” he said.

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“There is potential growth in the commercial and industrial sectors. When people see Bunnings and Officeworks doing this, it adds a ripple effect where other large companies can be influenced by seeing what these companies are doing, and seeing their car parks with EV chargers.”

He said large industrial roof spaces had not been as well utilised with solar panels as households, sometimes because either structurally the roofs were not strong enough, or agreements were complicated between tenants and building owners.

He said: “This is a great opportunity where we have the owner and operator – Wesfarmers – that we can work with.”

The CEFC, with access to $32bn of government money, is a green bank that provides financing and loans to accelerate decarbonisation.

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Australia’s retail sector accounts for half of the energy use of all commercial properties and 5% of the country’s emissions.

CEFC said the solar and battery installations could also help to stabilise the country’s electricity grid.

Storing solar electricity in batteries to use in evening peaks, for example, can help even out power demand at times of higher electricity use.

The executive director at the CEFC, Richard Lovell, said: “By focusing on using its existing building assets to support renewable energy generation and energy storage, which are crucial for energy demand management, Wesfarmers continues to execute its active decarbonisation strategy to reduce its direct emissions.”

Bunnings, Officeworks and WesCEF all have targets to reach net zero direct emissions by 2030, and to use 100% renewable electricity by the end of 2025.

Wesfarmers will also use part of the CEFC finance to fund a study at its chemicals, energy and fertiliser business, WesCEF, into decarbonising the production of sodium cyanide – a chemical used in gold production.

Work to install and upgrade facilities at Bunnings and Officeworks sites is expected to be completed by the end of this year.

Wesfarmers chief financial officer, Anthony Gianotti, said the company welcomed the backing of the CEFC. “We have long managed our businesses with climate and carbon awareness and we are committed to continuing to take action to reduce our impact on the environment.”

Exclusive:New ANU research reveals those liable for extra earnings levy have 12 times wealth of other Australians

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Fewer than 1% of households with multimillion-dollar super balances could struggle to pay for Labor’s additional tax on retirement balances above $3m.

New ANU research also reveals that households liable for the extra earnings levy have 12 times the wealth of other households, including an average of $3.2m outside super and the family home. They also have more than two-and-a-half times the disposable income.

Ben Phillips, an associate professor from the ANU’s Centre for Social Policy Research, said the analysis undermined claims thatmany individuals would struggleto find the cash to pay for the proposed 15% earnings tax on balances over $3m, which is applied to notional gains rather than realised profits.

Phillips said he had done the research to inform what he calledthe “unprecedented” public debateof a relatively minor policy change that affected a very small proportion of wealthy Australians.

“These arevery wealthy peoplewith a lot of other assets, and also with a lot of income. It would be very, very surprising if all but a small handful of people would struggle to pay this tax,” he said.

In particular, Phillips and his colleague Richard Webster, a senior research officer, wanted to test claims that taxing unrealised gains could force some to sell big assets – most notably farms – to pay the impost.

With the farming lobby group mounting a campaign against the super tax, the research estimated about 2,400 people with large super balances are farmers.

The farming lobby has claimed that cash-strapped but asset-rich farmers could be forced to sell farm land to raise money to pay the tax, which is calculated on the annual notional change in the value of their super balances.

The modelling of ABS survey data showed that only 0.6% of the estimated 87,000 individuals with large balances, or 500 people, could struggle to find the cash to pay for the extra earnings tax.

“They are sort of ‘unicorn’ cases, and even then we don’t know what’s in their super accounts,” Phillips said, which he reckoned were likely to include enough liquid assets to pay the tax.

“That’s not to say it’s necessarily a good tax, but we are not seeing any barriers to these people paying a bit of extra tax on their super.”

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The paper models a scenario where an individual with $4m in super records a 10% gain, which – assuming for simplicity no contributions or withdrawals – incurs an extra tax of about $19,000.

If that extra tax is more than 10% of the household’s disposable income and other wealth (that is, wealth not in super or in the home), then that household fails the stress test.

In this case, the household could struggle to pay the tax if they are also unable to easily pay the tax from their super savings.

The modelling suggests the median high super balance household has annual disposable income of nearly $250,000, versus $95,000 for all households, and nearly eight in 10 own their own home outright.

Two-thirds of the estimated 87,000 people with high super balances are men, three in four live in a capital city, and over half don’t work.

“We really need to question why people have so much money in super for a start, when you only need enough to give you a comfortable retirement,” Phillips said.

“You also have to question – given the nature of super, where it’s about getting money when you need it – why would you have large amounts of illiquid assets[assets not easily converted to cash]? That’s not really what super is about. That seems to be more about a tax haven, rather than a saving vehicle for your retirement”