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Curiosity Blog, Sols 4568-4569: A Close Look at the Altadena Drill Hole and Tailings

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Written by Sharon Wilson Purdy, Planetary Geologist at the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum

Earth planning date: Wednesday, June 11, 2025

As we near the end of our Altadena drill campaign, Curiosity continued her exploration of the Martian bedrock within the boxwork structures on Mount Sharp. After successfully delivering a powdered rock sample to both the CheMin (Chemistry and Mineralogy) and SAM (Sample Analysis at Mars) instruments, the focus for sols 4568 and 4569 was to take a closer look at the drill hole itself — specifically, the interior walls of the drill hole and the associated tailings (the rock material pushed out by the drill).

In the image above, you can see that the tone (or color) of the rock exposed within the wall of the drill hole appears to change slightly with depth, and the drill tailings are a mixture of fine powder and more solid clumps. If you compare the Altadena drill site withthe 42 drill sites that came before, one can really appreciate the impressive range of colors, textures, and grain sizes in the rocks that Curiosity has analyzed over the past 12 years. Every drill hole marks a window into the past and can help us understand how the ancient environment and climate on Mars evolved over time.

In this two-sol plan, the ChemCam, Mastcam, APXS, and MAHLI instruments coordinated their observations to image and characterize the chemistry of the wall of the drill hole and tailings before we drive away from this site over the coming weekend. Outside of our immediate workspace, Mastcam created two stereo mosaics that will image the boxwork structures nearby as well as the layers within Texoli butte. ChemCam assembled three long-distance RMI images that will help assess the layers at the base of the “Mishe Mokwa” hill, complete the imaging of the nearby boxwork structures, and image the very distant crater rim (about 90 kilometers, or 56 miles away) and sky to investigate the scattering properties of the atmosphere. The environmental theme group included observations that will measure the properties of the atmosphere and also included a dust-devil survey.

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Johnson’s Jason Foster Recognized for New Technology Reporting Record

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Heading into a recent staff meeting for Johnson Space Center’s Business Development & Technology Integration Office, Jason Foster anticipated a typical agenda of team updates and discussion. He did not expect an announcement that he had been named a 2025 Rookie of the Year – Honorable Mention through the Federal Laboratory Consortium’s annual awards program.

Foster was one of only three technology transfer professionals across the federal government to be recognized in the Rookie of the Year category, which is open to early-career individuals with less than three years of experience. “It was definitely a surprise,” he said. “It was quite an honor, because it’s not only representing Johnson Space Center but also NASA.”

Foster is a licensing specialist andNew Technology Report (NTR)specialist within Johnson’s Technology Transfer Office in Houston. That team works to ensure that innovations developed for aeronautics and space exploration are made broadly available to the public, maximizing their benefit to the nation. Foster’s role involves both capturing new technologies developed at Johnson and marketing and licensing those technologies to companies that would like to use and further develop them.

He describes much of his work as “technology hunting” – reaching out to branches, offices, and teams across Johnson to teach them about the Technology Transfer Office, NTRs, and the value of technology reporting for NASA and the public. “NTRs are the foundation that allows our office to do our job,” he said. “We need to know about a technology in order to transfer it.”

Foster’s efforts to streamline and strengthen the reporting and patenting of Johnson’s innovations led to his recognition by the consortium. His proactive outreach and relationship-building improved customer service and contributed to 158 NTRs in fiscal year 2024 – the highest number of NTRs disclosed by federal employees at any NASA center. Foster also proposed a three-month NTR sprint, during which he led a team of seven in an intensive exercise to identify and report new technologies. This initiative not only cleared a backlog of leads for the office, but also resulted in more than 120 previously undisclosed NTRs. “We are still using that process now as we continue processing NTRs,” Foster said. On top of those achievements, he helped secure the highest recorded number of license agreements with commercial entities in the center’s history, with 41 licenses executed in fiscal year 2024.

“I am very proud of my accomplishments, none of it would be possible without the open-mindedness and continuous support of my incredible team,” Foster said. “They have always provided a space to grow, and actively welcome innovation in our processes and workflows.”

A self-described “space nerd,” Foster said he always envisioned working at NASA, but not until much later in his career – ideally as an astronaut. He initially planned to pursue an astrophysics degree but discovered a passion for engineering and fused that with his love of space by studying aerospace, aeronautical, and astronautical engineering instead. In his last semester of college at California Polytechnic State University of San Luis Obispo, he landed an internship at Johnson through NASA’s Office of STEM Engagement. He supported flight software development for crew exercise systems on the International Space Station and future exploration missions. “I got really involved in the Johnson Space Center team and the work, and I thought, what if I joined NASA now?”

He was hired as a licensing specialist on the Technology Transfer team under the JETS II Contract as an Amentum employee shortly after graduating and continually seeks new opportunities to expand his role and skillsets. “The more I can learn about anything NASA’s doing is incredible,” he said. “I found myself in this perfect position where literally my job is to learn everything there is to learn.”

Foster celebrates three years with NASA this July. In his time at the agency, he has learned the value of getting to know and understand your colleagues’ needs in order to help them. Before he meets with someone, he takes time to learn about the organization or team they are a part of, the work they are involved in, and what they might discuss. It is also important to determine how each person prefers to communicate and collaborate. “Doing your homework pays dividends,” Foster said. He has found that being as prepared as possible opens doors to more opportunities, and it helps to save valuable time for busy team members.

When he is not technology hunting, you might find Foster practicing the art of fire spinning. He picked up the hobby in college, joining a club that met at local beaches to practice spinning and capturing different geometric patterns through long exposure photos. “It was kind of a strange thing to get into, but it was really fun,” he said. His love of learning drives his interest in other activities as well. Gardening is a relatively new hobby inspired by a realization that he had never grown anything before.

“It’s a genuine joy, I think, coming across something with curiosity and wanting to learn from it,” he said. “I think it especially helps in my job, where your curiosity switch has to be on at least 90% of the time.”

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NASA Seeks Commercial Feedback on Space Communication Solutions

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NASA isseeking informationfrom U.S. and international companies about Earth proximity relay communication and navigation capabilities as the agency aims to use private industry satellite communications services for emerging agency science missions.

“As part of NASA’sCommunications Services Project, the agency is working with private industry to solve challenges for future exploration,” said Kevin Coggins, deputy associate administrator of NASA’s SCaN Program. “Through this effort, NASA missions will have a greater ability to command spacecraft, resolve issues in flight, and bring home more data and scientific discoveries collected across the solar system.”

In November 2024, NASA announced theTDRS(Tracking and Data Relay Satellite) system, the agency’s network of satellites relaying communications from the International Space Station, ground controls on Earth, and spacecraft, will support only existing missions.

NASA, as one of many customers, will obtain commercial satellite services rather than owning and operating a replacement for the existing satellite system. As NASA transitions to commercial relay services, the agency will leverage commercial capabilities to ensure support for future missions and stimulate private investment into the Earth proximity region. Commercial service offerings could become available to NASA missions as early as 2028 and will continue to be demonstrated and validated through 2031.

NASA’s SCaN issued aRequest for Informationon May 30. Responses are due by 5 p.m. EDT on Friday, July 11.NASA’s SCaN Program serves as the management office for the agency’s space communications and navigation. More than 100 NASA and non-NASA missions rely on SCaN’s two networks, the Near Space Network and the Deep Space Network, to support astronauts aboard the International Space Station and future Artemis missions, monitor Earth’s weather, support lunar exploration, and uncover the solar system and beyond.

Learn more about NASA’s SCaN Program at:

Communications Services Project

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NASA Announces Winners of 2025 Student Launch Competition

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NASA’s Student Launch competition celebrated its 25th anniversary on May 4, just north of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, bringing together more than 980 middle school, high school, college, and university students from across the U.S. to showcase and launch their high-powered rocketry designs.

The event marked the conclusion of the nine-month challenge where teams designed, built, and launched more than 50 rockets carrying scientific payloads—trying to achieve altitudes between 4,000 and 6,000 feet before executing a successful landing and payload mission.

“This is really about mirroring the NASA engineering design process,” Kevin McGhaw, director of NASA’s Office of STEM Engagement Southeast Region, said. “It gives students hands-on experience not only in building and designing hardware, but in the review and testing process.  We are helping to prepare and inspire students to get out of classroom and into the aerospace industry as a capable and energizing part of our future workforce.”

NASA announced James Madison University as the overall winner of the agency’s 2025 Student Launch challenge, followed by North Carolina State University, and The University of Alabama in Huntsville. A complete list of challenge winners can be found on the agency’sStudent Launch webpage.

Each year, a payload challenge is issued to the university teams, and this year’s task took inspiration from the agency’s Artemis missions, where NASA will send astronauts to explore the Moon for scientific discovery, economic benefit, and to build the foundation for the first crewed missions to Mars. Teams were challenged to include sensor data fromSTEMnauts, non-living objects representing astronauts. The STEMnaut “crew” had to relay real-time data to the student team’s mission control, just as the Artemis astronaut crew will do as they explore the lunar surface.

Student Launch is one of NASA’s sevenArtemis Student Challenges– activities that connect student ingenuity with NASA’s work returning to the Moon under Artemis in preparation for human exploration of Mars.

The competition is managed by Marshall’s Office of STEM Engagement. Additional funding and support are provided bytheOffice of STEM Engagement’s Next Generation STEM project, NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, the agency’s Space Operations Mission Directorate, Northrup Grumman, National Space Club Huntsville, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, National Association of Rocketry, Relativity Space, and Bastion Technologies Inc.

To watch the full virtual awards ceremony, please visitNASA Marshall’s YouTube channel.

For more information about Student Launch, visit:

https://www.nasa.gov/learning-resources/nasa-student-launch/

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Hubble Studies a Spiral’s Supernova Scene

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This serene spiral galaxy hides a cataclysmic past. The galaxy IC 758, shown in this NASA/ESAHubble Space Telescopeimage, is situated 60 million light-years away in the constellation Ursa Major.

Hubble captured this image in 2023. IC 758 appears peaceful, with its soft blue spiral arms curving gently around its hazy barred center. However, in 1999, astronomers spotted a powerful explosion in this galaxy. The supernova SN 1999bg marked the dramatic end of a star far more massive than the Sun.

Researchers do not know exactly how massive this star was before it exploded, but will use these Hubble observations to measure the masses of stars in SN 1999bg’s neighborhood. These measurements will help them estimate the mass of the star that went supernova. The Hubble data may also reveal whether SN 1999bg’s progenitor star had a companion, which would provide additional clues about the star’s life and death.

A supernova represents more than just the demise of a single star — it’s also a powerful force that can shape its neighborhood. When a massive star collapses, triggering a supernova, its outer layers rebound off its shrunken core. The explosion stirs the interstellar soup of gas and dust out of which new stars form. This interstellar shakeup can scatter and heat nearby gas clouds, preventing new stars from forming, or it can compress them, creating a burst of new star formation. The cast-off layers enrich the interstellar medium, from which new stars form, with heavy elements manufactured in the core of the supernova.

Image Credit: ESA/Hubble & NASA, C. Kilpatrick

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NASA Employees Named 2025 Service to America Medals Honorees

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Two NASA employees are being  honored as part of the Samuel J. Heyman Service to America Medals, also known as the Sammies, recognizing outstanding federal employees who are addressing many of our country’s greatest challenges.

Rich Burns of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and John Blevins of Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, were selected out of 350 nominees and are among 23 individuals and teams honored for their achievements as federal employees. They will be recognized at a ceremony in Washington on Tuesday, June 17, that also will be live streamed on theSammies website. The honorees will be commended via videos and presenter remarks and receive medals for their achievements.

Named after the founder of the Partnership for Public Service, the 2025 Service to America Medals awards celebrate federal employees who provided critical public services and made outstanding contributions to the health, safety, and national security of our country.

“Rich and John exemplify the spirit of exploration and service that defines NASA and our nation’s civil servants,” said acting NASA Administrator Janet Petro. “Their leadership, ingenuity, and dedication have not only advanced America’s space program but also inspired the next generation of innovators. We are proud to see their achievements recognized among the very best of federal service.”

Burns was the project manager of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security – Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission to collect a sample from an asteroid and oversaw operations from the developmental stage to the successful landing of the spacecraft’s Sample Return Capsule.

The mission launched on Sept. 18, 2016, and after a nearly four-year journey, the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft successfully collected a sample from the asteroid Bennu on Oct. 20, 2020, which returned to Earth on Sept. 24, 2023, providing scientists with 120 grams of pristine material to study, the largest amount ever collected from an asteroid. Working to solidify OSIRIS-REx as a success, Burns set up multiple partnerships and communicated frequently with scientists, large and small businesses, NASA centers, and others to ensure the mission’s vision was carried out though each phase.

During the mission, Burns had to handle unique challenges that required adapting to new situations. These included improving flight software to help the spacecraft avoid hazardous parts of Bennu’s rocky surface and working with NASA leaders to find a way to best protect the sample collected from Bennu after a large stone propped the collection canister open. Finally, when the sample was set to return to Earth, Burns worked extensively with NASA and military partners to prepare for the landing, focusing on the safety of the public along with the integrity of the sample to ensure the final part of the mission was a success.

Burns helped OSIRIS-REx exceed its objectives all while under the original budget, allowing  NASA to share a portion of the sample with more than 80 research projects and make new discoveries about the possible origins of life on our planet. The spacecraft, now known as Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification and Security – Apophis Explorer, is scheduled to rendezvous with the asteroid Apophis in 2029.

“It’s humbling to accept an award based on the achievements of the amazingly talented, dedicated, and innovative OSIRIS-REx team,” Burns said. “I consider myself privileged to be counted among a team of true explorers who let no obstacle stand in the way of discovery.”

Blevins is the chief engineer for the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and is responsible for the various technical decisions that need to be made to ensure each mission is successful. This included calculating structural needs, thermal analyses of the effects, and studies of vibrations, acoustics, propulsion integration, among other work.

Artemis I, the first test flight of the SLS rocket, successfully launched from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Nov. 16, 2022. In the time leading up to and during launch, Blevins led the team integrating the hardware for the mission working  to address unexpected events while SLS was on the pad prior to launch. This included significant lightning storms and two hurricanes impacting Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

Blevins built a working coalition of engineering teams across the agency that previously did not exist. His ability to forge strong relationships on the various teams across the agency allowed for the successful launch of Artemis I. He continues to lead the engineering team behind SLS as they prepare for Artemis II, the second flight of SLS and the first crewed lunar mission of the 21st century.

“This is a reflection on the hard work and dedication of the entire Artemis Team,” Blevins said. “I am working with an incredibly competent, dedicated team agencywide that goes above and beyond to promote the space exploration goals of our nation. I am honored to accept the award on their behalf.”

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Explore Our Dynamic Sun!

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from NASA’s Heliophysics Education Activation Team (NASA HEAT) and the Astronomical Society of the Pacific/Night Sky Network

Have you ever wondered about what the Sun is made of? Or why do you get sunburned on even cloudy days? NASA’s new Explore the Sun toolkit brings the wonders of solar science to you, offering answers to these questions and more!

A collaboration between NASA’s Heliophysics Education Activation Team (NASA HEAT) and the Astronomical Society of the Pacific’s Night Sky Network program, this resource was developed for informal educators, amateur astronomers, and astronomy enthusiasts alike, providing engaging activities for anyone eager to learn more about our nearest star.

Whether you’re hosting a solar viewing event or an indoor presentation, theOur Dynamic Suntoolkit provides easy-to-use materials designed to spark curiosity. Each card in the set pairs NASA images with clear explanations for each topic:

These cards not only answer common questions the public may have, but also highlight how NASA’s solar research helps us understand space weather, solar storms, and their impacts on our daily lives.

Bring the Sun’s story to your community and inspire the next generation of explorers. You can download this freeOur Dynamic Suntoolkit here:https://bit.ly/suntoolkit

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Sun unleashes monster solar storm: Rare G4 alert issued for Earth

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Local weather alerts are familiar warnings for potentially dangerous conditions, but an alert that puts all of Earth on warning is rare.

On May 31, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory's (NRL) space-based instrumentation captured real-time observations of a powerful Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from the Sun initiating a "severe geomagnetic storm" alert for Earth.

"Our observations demonstrated that the eruption was a so-called 'halo CME,' meaning it was Earth-directed, with our preliminary analysis of the data showing an apparent velocity of over 1,700 kilometers per second for the event," stated Karl Battams, Ph.D., computational scientist for NRL's Heliospheric Science Division.

A geomagnetic storm is a major disturbance of Earth's magnetosphere that's caused by the highly efficient transfer of energy from the solar wind into our planet's surrounding space environment. These disruptions are primarily driven by sustained periods of high-speed solar wind and, crucially, a southward-directed solar wind magnetic field that can peel away Earth's field on the dayside of the magnetosphere. Energy from the solar wind can open Earth's magnetic shield.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center classified the recent solar storm as G4, the second-highest classification on its five-level geomagnetic scale.

Powerful storms such as this are typically associated with CMEs. The repercussions can range from temporary outages and data corruption to permanent damage to satellites, increased atmospheric drag on low-Earth orbit spacecraft altering their trajectories, and disruptions to high-frequency radio communications.

"Such disturbances can compromise situational awareness, hinder command and control, affect precision-guided systems, and even impact the electrical power grid, directly affecting military readiness and operational effectiveness," Battams said.

CMEs are colossal expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun's corona, often carrying billions of tons of material. While CMEs generally take several days to reach Earth, the most intense events have been observed to arrive in as little as 18 hours.

"CMEs are the explosive release of mass from the Sun's low corona and are a primary driver of space weather, playing a central role in understanding the conditions of the Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere," explained Arnaud Thernisien, Ph.D., a research physicist from the Advanced Sensor Technology Section within NRL's Space Science Division.

The May 30 event saw a relatively slow but powerful solar flare erupt from the Earth-facing side of the Sun. The energy released blasted a CME directly toward Earth, leading to the geomagnetic storm that has produced auroras as far south as New Mexico.

NRL's space-based instrumentation, operating on NASA and NOAA spacecraft, provided vital real-time observations of this event. Notably, NRL's venerable Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO), which has been in operation since 1996, and the Compact Coronagraph 1 (CCOR-1), launched in 2024, both relayed critical data.

Such observations are paramount for operational space weather monitoring, allowing forecasters to predict the timing of the event's arrival at Earth and the potential geomagnetic storm it could induce. While precisely predicting the severity, exact timing, or duration of a geomagnetic storm remains challenging, these advance warnings are vital for enabling the Department of Defense (DoD) and other agencies to prepare.

The potential impacts of severe geomagnetic storms on DoD and Department of the Navy missions are significant and far-reaching. These events can disrupt or degrade critical systems and capabilities, including satellite communications, Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation and timing, and various remote sensing systems.

"NRL has been a pioneer in heliophysics and space weather research since the very inception of the field, dating back to the first discovery of CMEs through NRL space-based observations in 1971," Battams said. "Since then, NRL has consistently maintained its position at the forefront of coronal imaging with a portfolio of groundbreaking instrumentation that has driven heliospheric and space weather studies."

These assets, particularly instruments like LASCO and CCOR-1, are indispensable for providing the crucial real-time imagery necessary for forecasters to analyze and assess CMEs, determine Earth-impact likelihood, and issue timely warnings.

"They form the backbone of our ability to anticipate and mitigate the effects of space weather. As the G4 severe geomagnetic storm watch continues, the public and critical infrastructure operators are encouraged to visit NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center for the latest information and updates," Thernisien said.

The journey of the CME, from its fierce eruption on the Sun to its arrival at Earth, approximately one million miles away, highlights the dynamic nature of our solar system and the ongoing importance of NRL's vital contributions to heliophysics research and space weather preparedness. The data collected from events such as this will be instrumental in future research, further enhancing our understanding and predictive capabilities and ultimately bolstering the resilience of national security and critical infrastructure.

Materialsprovided byNaval Research Laboratory.Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

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Sharper than lightning: Oxford’s one-in-6. 7-million quantum breakthrough

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Physicists at the University of Oxford have set a new global benchmark for the accuracy of controlling a single quantum bit, achieving the lowest-ever error rate for a quantum logic operation — just 0.000015%, or one error in 6.7 million operations. This record-breaking result represents nearly an order of magnitude improvement over the previous benchmark, set by the same research group a decade ago.

To put the result in perspective: a person is more likely to be struck by lightning in a given year (1 in 1.2 million) than for one of Oxford's quantum logic gates to make a mistake.

The findings, published inPhysical Review Letters,are a major advance towards having robust and useful quantum computers.

"As far as we are aware, this is the most accurate qubit operation ever recorded anywhere in the world," said Professor David Lucas, co-author on the paper, from the University of Oxford's Department of Physics. "It is an important step toward building practical quantum computers that can tackle real-world problems."

To perform useful calculations on a quantum computer, millions of operations will need to be run across many qubits. This means that if the error rate is too high, the final result of the calculation will be meaningless. Although error correction can be used to fix mistakes, this comes at the cost of requiring many more qubits. By reducing the error, the new method reduces the number of qubits required and consequently the cost and size of the quantum computer itself.

Co-lead author Molly Smith (Graduate Student, Department of Physics, University of Oxford), said: "By drastically reducing the chance of error, this work significantly reduces the infrastructure required for error correction, opening the way for future quantum computers to be smaller, faster, and more efficient. Precise control of qubits will also be useful for other quantum technologies such as clocks and quantum sensors."

This unprecedented level of precision was achieved using a trapped calcium ion as the qubit (quantum bit). These are a natural choice to store quantum information due to their long lifetime and their robustness. Unlike the conventional approach, which uses lasers, the Oxford team controlled the quantum state of the calcium ions using electronic (microwave) signals.

This method offers greater stability than laser control and also has other benefits for building a practical quantum computer. For instance, electronic control is much cheaper and more robust than lasers, and easier to integrate in ion trapping chips. Furthermore, the experiment was conducted at room temperature and without magnetic shielding, thus simplifying the technical requirements for a working quantum computer.

The previous best single-qubit error rate, also achieved by the Oxford team, in 2014, was 1 in 1 million. The group's expertise led to the launch of the spinout company Oxford Ionics in 2019, which has become an established leader in high-performance trapped-ion qubit platforms.

Whilst this record-breaking result marks a major milestone, the research team caution that it is part of a larger challenge. Quantum computing requires both single- and two-qubit gates to function together. Currently, two-qubit gates still have significantly higher error rates — around 1 in 2000 in the best demonstrations to date — so reducing these will be crucial to building fully fault-tolerant quantum machines.

The experiments were carried out at the University of Oxford's Department of Physics by Molly Smith, Aaron Leu, Dr Mario Gely and Professor David Lucas, together with a visiting researcher, Dr Koichiro Miyanishi, from the University of Osaka's Centre for Quantum Information and Quantum Biology.

The Oxford scientists are part of the UK Quantum Computing and Simulation (QCS) Hub, which was a part of the ongoing UK National Quantum Technologies Programme.

Materialsprovided byUniversity of Oxford.Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

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Scientists uncover why “stealth” volcanoes stay silent until eruption

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When volcanoes are preparing to erupt, scientists rely on typical signs to warn people living nearby: deformation of the ground and earthquakes, caused by underground chambers filling up with magma and volcanic gas. But some volcanoes, called 'stealthy' volcanoes, don't give obvious warning signs. Now scientists studying Veniaminof, Alaska, have developed a model which could explain and predict stealthy eruptions.

"Despite major advances in monitoring, some volcanoes erupt with little or no detectable precursors, significantly increasing the risk to nearby populations," said Dr Yuyu Li of the University of Illinois, lead author of the study inFrontiers in Earth Science. "Some of these volcanoes are located near major air routes or close to communities: examples include Popocatépetl and Colima in Mexico, Merapi in Indonesia, Galeras in Colombia, and Stromboli in Italy.

"Our work helps explain how this happens, by identifying the key internal conditions — such as low magma supply and warm host rock — that make eruptions stealthy."

Veniaminof is an ice-clad volcano in the Aleutian Arc of Alaska. It's carefully monitored, but only two of its 13 eruptions since 1993 have been preceded by enough signs to alert observing scientists. In fact, a 2021 eruption wasn't caught until three days after it had started.

"Veniaminof is a case study in how a volcano can appear quiet while still being primed to erupt," said Li. "It is one of the most active volcanoes in Alaska. In recent decades, it has produced several VEI 3 eruptions — moderate-sized explosive events that can send ash up to 15 km high, disrupt air traffic, and pose regional hazards to nearby communities and infrastructure — often without clear warning signs."

To understand Veniaminof better, the scientists used monitoring data over three summer seasons immediately before the 2018 stealthy eruption, which produced only ambiguous warning signs immediately before it happened. They created a model of the volcano's behavior in different conditions which would change the impact of a filling magma reservoir on the ground above: six potential volumes of magma reservoir, a range of magma flow rates and reservoir depths, and three shapes of reservoir. They then compared the models to the data to see which matched best, and which conditions produced eruptions, stealthy or otherwise.

They found that a high flow of magma into a chamber increases the deformation of the ground and the likelihood of an eruption. If magma is flowing quickly into a large chamber, an eruption may not occur, but if one does the ground will deform enough to warn scientists first. Similarly, a high flow of magma into a small chamber is likely to produce an eruption, but not a stealthy one. Stealthy eruptions become likely when a low flow of magma enters a relatively small chamber. Compared to observational data, the results suggest that Veniaminof has a small magma chamber and a low flow of magma.

The model also suggests that different conditions could produce different warning signs. Magma flowing into larger, flatter chambers may cause minimal earthquakes, while smaller, more elongated chambers may produce little deformation of the ground. But stealthy eruptions only happen when all the conditions are in place — the right magma flow and the right chamber size, shape, and depth.

However, when the scientists added temperature to their model, they found that if magma is consistently present over time so that the rock of the chamber is warm, size and shape matters less. If the rock is warm, it's less likely to fail in ways that cause detectable earthquakes or deformation of the ground when magma flows into the chamber, increasing the likelihood of a stealthy eruption.

"To mitigate the impact of these potential surprise eruptions, we need to integrate high-precision instruments like borehole tiltmeters and strainmeters and fiber optic sensing, as well as newer approaches such as infrasound and gas emission monitoring," said Li. "Machine learning has also shown promise in detecting subtle changes in volcanic behavior, especially in earthquake signal picking."

At Veniaminof, taking measures to improve the coverage of satellite monitoring and adding tiltmeters and strainmeters could improve the rate of detection. In the meantime, scientists now know which volcanoes they need to watch most closely: volcanoes with small, warm reservoirs and slow magma flows.

"Combining these models with real-time observations represents a promising direction for improving volcano forecasting," said Li. "In the future, this approach can enable improved monitoring for these stealthy systems, ultimately leading to more effective responses to protect nearby communities."

Materialsprovided byFrontiers.Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

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