Penulis: Agus S

Chimpanzees in Uganda have been observed using medicinal plants – in multiple ways – to treat open wounds and other injuries.

University of Oxford scientists, working with a local team in the Budongo Forest, filmed and recorded incidents of the animals using plants for first aid, both on themselves and occasionally on each other.

Their research builds on the discovery last year that chimps seek out and eat certain plants to self-medicate.

The scientists also compiled decades of scientific observations to create a catalogue of the different ways in which chimpanzees use “forest first aid”.

Researchers say the study, which is published in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, adds to a growing body of evidence that primates, including chimps, orangutans and gorillas, use natural medicines in a number of ways to stay healthy in the wild.

Lead researcher Elodie Freymann explained there was “a whole behavioural repertoire that chimpanzees use when they’re sick or injured in the wild – to treat themselves and to maintain hygiene”.

“Some of these include the use of plants that can be found here,” she explained. “The chimpanzees dab them on their wounds or chew the plants up, and then apply the chewed material to the open injury.”

The researchers studied footage of a very young, female chimpanzee chewing plant material and applying it to an injury on its mother’s body.

They also found records of chimpanzees tending to the wounds of other animals they weren’t related to. This is particularly exciting, explained Dr Freymann, “because it adds to the evidence that wild chimpanzees have the capacity for empathy”.

Some of the hundreds of written observations that Dr Freymann and her colleagues studied came from a log book at the field station in the forest site, which is northwest of the capital, Kampala.

This record of anecdotal evidence dates back to the 1990s – local field staff, researchers and visitors have written in, describing any interesting behaviour they have observed.

There are stories in that book of leaf-dabbing on injuries and chimps helping other chimps to remove snares from their limbs.

There are some surprisingly human-like hygiene habits: One note describes a chimpanzee using leaves to wipe itself after defecating.

This team of researchers has previously identified some of the plants that chimpanzees sought out and ate when they were injured. The scientists took samples of those plants, tested them and discovered most had antibacterial properties.

Chimpanzees are not the only non-human apes with apparent knowledge of plant-based medicine. A recent study showed a wild oranguatan using chewed leaf material to heal a facial wound.

Scientists think studying this wild ape behaviour – and understanding more about the plants the chimps use when they are sick or injured – could help in the search for new medicines.

“The more we learn about chimpanzee behaviour and intelligence, the more I think we come to understand how little we as humans actually know about the natural world,” Dr Freymann told BBC News.

“If I were plopped down here in this forest with no food and no medicine, I doubt that I’d be able to survive very long, especially if I were injured or sick.”

“But chimpanzees thrive here because they know how to access the secrets of this place, and how to find all they need to survive from their surroundings.”

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Many of the UK’s rivers have hit exceptionally low levels and that could worsen in the next three months, according to the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH), raising questions over supplies to households, farmers and businesses.

The warning comes after the driest spring in England since 1961, with northern regions experiencing the driest start to the year in nearly a century.

Almost all of the UK is expected to have below normal or low river levels in May, apart from the south-west of England and southern Wales.

The Environment Agency has said that the UK is at medium risk of drought and warned households of the risk of water restrictions.

The next 2-3 weeks will be “crucial” in determining whether the country goes into drought, says Mark Owen, head of fisheries for the Angling Trust and a member of the National Drought Group.

That is the committee, led by the government, that declares if and when a drought is officially under way.

The country is not now in drought, but the impacts of the exceptionally dry weather are already being felt.

Some farmers are being forced to water their crops instead of relying on rainfall, which is something that normally happens later in the year.

“We are having a drought now from an agricultural point of view,” arable farmer Nick Deane told BBC News from his farm in Norfolk.

He had to start irrigating his fields in March.

“We have to ration our water and decide which areas we are going to put that water on in order to keep the crops growing,” he said.

He warned that an extremely long drought would mean farmers struggle to produce food and more produce would need to be imported.

The dry and sunny weather this year has led to a larger area of the UK burned by wildfires this year compared with any other entire year.

The last drought was in June-August 2022, which was the joint hottest summer (with 2018) and fifth driest since the 1890s.

Five companies introduced hosepipe bans, affecting 19 million people, and waterways had restricted navigation.

That drought was preceded by six months of very dry weather.

However, the wet summer in 2024 and moderately-wet winter means water supplies are in a better place now and water companies have larger reserves to rely on.

But dry weather earlier in the year has risks. It does “potentially pose a greater risk to water resources later on in the year, particularly if the dry weather continues,” says Stephen Turner, hydrologist at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.

Last week, Richard Thompson, chair of the National Drought Group, warned that water companies may need to bring in water restrictions to protect supplies if the dry weather continues.

At the moment the key questions are when will it next rain and when it does, how much will there be.

There are some signs that some rain is on the horizon, with unsettled weather from the west at the end of next week.

Drinking water comes from different places depending on the geography and geology of regions.

Roughly speaking, the south of England takes a long time to get into drought but a long time to leave. That’s because a lot of rainfall is stored in rocks underground and takes a long time to reach rivers and water supplies.

By contrast, the north of England quickly enters drought and quickly gets out because reservoirs are more heavily used for water supplies.

Water Companies introduce hosepipe bans when water supplies reach a certain low in their areas.

If drought conditions become severe, the government can restrict irrigation of farms, reduce boats’ movement on waterways, and limit water available to non-essential businesses like car washes.

In an extreme scenario, it could ration the amount of water available to homes and businesses but that has not happened since 1976.

Water industry bosses and the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) are calling on the government to do more to ensure the driest parts of the UK have secure water supplies in the face of any future drought.

Water UK, which represents the water industry, is calling for a new national water grid of pipes, canals and reservoirs to be set up in England to move water from the wettest regions to where it is most needed.

And farmers say they need more government funding and less planning red tape to build their own reservoirs to supply their farms.

Mr Deane came together with five other farmers, including fruit growers, to build their own reservoir. It took four years and cost more than £1m.

It has proved vital, they say, with 15% of the stored water already used this year in the dry conditions.

But the group said obtaining planning permission was costly and difficult.

A government spokesman said it was working with the agricultural sector to improve its water supply resilience and establish more groups of farmers who could work together to develop their own reservoirs.

He added: “Over £104bn of private sector investment has been secured to fund essential infrastructure, including nine new reservoirs, to help secure our future water supply for farmers.”

The prolonged dry weather is linked to what are called “blocking highs” when a high pressure weather system becomes stuck.

Scientists do not know if this blocked pattern is linked to climate change.

Global warming is expected to cause more extreme weather events globally.

Studies about our future climate suggest more and longer periods of dry weather as well as periods of less rainfall in the UK. Winters are likely to be wetter and warmer.

That could exacerbate other forms of drought like hydrological or agricultural drought, according to the Met Office.

Graphic by Erwan Rivault

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Garfield, Puss in Boots, Aristocats’ Toulouse – cultural icons maybe, ginger most certainly.

And now scientists across two continents have uncovered the DNA mystery that has given our furry friends, particularly males, their notable colour.

They discovered that ginger cats are missing a section of their genetic code, which means the cells responsible for their skin, eye and fur tone produce lighter colours.

The breakthrough has brought delight to the scientists but also the thousands of cat lovers that originally crowdfunded the research.

The scientists hope solving the puzzle could also help shed light on whether orange coloured cats are at increased risk of certain health conditions.

It has been known for decades that it is genetics that gives orange tabby cats their distinctive colouring, but exactly where in the genetic code has evaded scientists till now.

Two teams of scientists at Kyushu University in Japan and Stanford University in the US have now revealed the mystery in simultaneous papers published on Thursday.

What the teams found was that in the cells responsible for giving a cat its skin, hair follicles and eyes their colour – melanocytes – one gene, ARHGAP36, was much more active.

Genes are made up of pieces of DNA which give instructions to a cat’s cells, like other living creatures, on how to function.

By comparing the DNA from dozens of cats with and without orange fur they found that those with ginger colouring had a section of DNA code missing within this ARHGAP36 gene.

Without this DNA the activity of the ARHGAP36 is not suppressed i.e. it is more active. The scientists believe that the gene instructs those melanocytes to produce lighter pigment.

For decades scientists have observed that cats with completely ginger colouring are far more likely to be male. This tallies with the fact that the gene is carried on the X chromosome.

Chromosomes are larger sections of DNA, and male cats like other mammals have an X and a Y chromosome, which carry different number of genes.

As it is a gene only on the X chromosome, in this case controlling the pigment production, then one missing piece of DNA is enough to turn a cat fully ginger.

In comparison female cats have two X chromosomes so the DNA needs to be missing in both chromosomes to increase lighter pigment production to the same extent – it means a mixed colouring is more likely.

“These ginger and black patches form because, early in development, one X chromosome in each cell is randomly switched off,” explains Prof Hiroyuki Sasaki, geneticist at Kyushu University.

“As cells divide, this creates areas with different active coat colour genes, resulting in distinct patches.”

Although couched in science, the study originally started off as a passion project for Professor Sasaki.

He had retired from his university post, but as a cat lover said he wanted to continue working to uncover the orange cat gene in the hope it could “contribute to the overcoming of cat diseases”.

He and his team raised 10.6m yen (£55,109) via crowdfunding for the research from thousands of fellow cat lovers across Japan and the world.

One contributor wrote: “We are siblings in the first and third grades of elementary school. We donated with our pocket money. Use it for research on calico cats.”

The ARHGAP36 gene is also active in many other areas of the body including the brain and hormonal glands, and is considered important for development.

The researchers think it is possible that the DNA mutation in the gene could cause other changes in these parts of the body linked to health conditions or temperament.

The ARHGAP36 gene is found in humans and has been linked to skin cancer and hair loss.

“Many cat owners swear by the idea that different coat colours and patterns are linked with different personalities,” said Prof Sasaki.

“There’s no scientific evidence for this yet, but it’s an intriguing idea and one I’d love to explore further.”

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Thames Water has decided to “pause” its scheme to pay out big bonuses to senior executives linked with securing its £3bn rescue loan.

The decision comes after Downing Street said bosses at the troubled firm “rewarding themselves for failure is clearly not acceptable”.

The company’s “retention scheme” was set to amount to 50% of senior bosses’ pay packets, which could have led to them getting £1m on top of their annual salaries and regular bonuses.

Thames had been accused by the environment secretary of “trying to circumvent” forthcoming rules to ban water companies from paying bonuses.

Steve Reed told MPs on Tuesday the company had been “calling their bonuses something different so they continue to pay them”.

Downing Street added ministers were “clear that, after presiding over years of mismanagement, Thames Water should not be handing itself bonuses”.

Reed and officials at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) held talks with Thames bosses ahead of the company’s decision.

A spokesperson for Thames its board had “decided to pause the retention scheme” and await guidance from the regulator Ofwat, who could be granted new rules to prevent any water firms from handing out any bonuses.

Thames said it would wait for the regulator’s steer to ensure the company’s “approach supports both our turnaround objectives and broader public expectations”.

“It has never been the Thames Water board’s intention to be at odds with the government’s ambition to reform the water industry,” the spokesperson added.

Thames has faced heavy criticism over its performance in recent years following a series of sewage discharges and leaks.

Since the dire state of the company’s finances first emerged about 18 months ago, the government has been on standby to put Thames into special administration.

The company secured an emergency £3bn loan in March to stave off collapse and is now looking to reduce its huge £20bn debt pile by requiring lenders to accept a discount in what they are owed.

The supplier serves about a quarter of the UK’s population, mostly across London and parts of southern England, and employs 8,000 people. It had expected to run out of cash completely by mid-April before it secured a rescue loan.

Regardless of what happens to the company in the future, water supplies and waste services to households will continue as normal.

Reed said he was “very happy” that Thames had dropped its retention scheme.

“It was the wrong thing to do. It offends against their own customers’ sense of fair play,” he added.

Thames previously said its “retention payments” were not performance-related bonuses covered by the new rules.

It said none of these retention payments would be funded by customers.

Earlier on Tuesday, Thames chairman Sir Adrian Montague clarified comments he had made about bonuses to a committee of MPs last week.

He said he might have “misspoken” when he stated lenders had “insisted” upon the “retention incentives” when questioned on the troubled water firm’s turnaround.

“We live in a competitive marketplace and we have to provide the right sort of packages to these people otherwise the head hunters come knocking,” he said at the time.

Anna MacDonald from Aubrey Capital Management said it appeared that Thames was “trying to limit a further PR disaster”.

The argument that bonuses were needed in order to retain top executives was not convincing, she told the BBC’s Today Programme.

“[Major investor] KKR is a big private equity firm, it will be allocating employees to different companies they are managing, so I am not sure that rings true. Maybe it is just how they structure their pay packages,” she said.

Last November, Ofwat blocked three water firms – including Thames, Yorkshire Water and Dwr Cymru Welsh Water – from using customer money to fund a total of £1.6m in bosses’ bonuses.

Defra said in a statement: “For too long, customers’ money has been spent on unjustified payouts, rather than investing in vital improvements to the water system. This government has been clear that the era of profiting from failure is over.”

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The world’s tropical forests, which provide a crucial buffer against climate change, disappeared faster than ever recorded last year, new satellite analysis suggests.

Researchers estimate that 67,000 sq km (26,000 sq mi) of these pristine, old-growth forests were lost in 2024 – an area nearly as large as the Republic of Ireland, or 18 football pitches a minute.

Fires were the main cause, overtaking land clearances from agriculture for the first time on record, with the Amazon faring particularly badly amid record drought.

There was more positive news in South East Asia, however, with government policies helping to reduce forest loss.

Tropical rainforests store hundreds of billions of tonnes of carbon in soils and woody trunks. But this new global record raises further questions about their resilience on a warming planet.

Many researchers are concerned some forests, such as parts of the Amazon, may be approaching a “tipping point”, beyond which they could fall into irreversible decline.

“The tipping point idea is, I think, increasingly the right one,” said Prof Matthew Hansen, co-director of GLAD laboratory at the University of Maryland, which produces the data.

Prof Hansen described the new results as “frightening”, and warned of the possible “savannisation” of the rainforest, where old-growth tropical forests die back and permanently switch to savanna.

“It’s still a theory, but I think that that’s more and more plausible looking at the data.”

A separate study, published last week, made a similar warning of possible significant dieback of the Amazon if global warming exceeds the international target of 1.5C.

This would not only threaten the vibrant array of wildlife living in these most biodiverse habitats, but would also have serious ramifications for the global climate.

Until recently, the Amazon had been doing humanity a favour, absorbing more planet-warming carbon dioxide (CO2) than it released.

But the burning of these forests emits huge amounts of CO2 – adding to warming rather than limiting it.

In 2023-24, the Amazon experienced its worst drought on record, fuelled by climate change and the natural warming El Niño weather pattern.

Many fires are started deliberately to clear land for agriculture, making it difficult to disentangle the two.

But the drought provided ideal conditions for fires to spread out of control, with Brazil and Bolivia most badly affected.

While only a single year, it fits the expected pattern of more intense tropical fires in a warming world.

“I think we are in a new phase, where it’s not just the clearing for agriculture that’s the main driver,” said Rod Taylor of the World Resources Institute (WRI), which is also behind the latest report.

“Now we have this new amplifying effect, which is a real climate change feedback loop, where fires are just much more intense and much more ferocious than they’ve ever been.”

In total, the record loss of the world’s old-growth (primary) tropical forests released 3.1 billion tonnes of planet-warming gases, the researchers estimate.

That’s roughly the same as the emissions of the European Union.

Countries in South East Asia, however, bucked the global trend.

The area of primary forest loss in Indonesia fell by 11% compared to 2023, for example, despite drought conditions.

This was the result of a concerted effort by governments and communities working together to enforce “no burning” laws, according to Elizabeth Goldman, co-director of the Global Forest Watch project at WRI.

“Indonesia serves as a bright spot in the 2024 data,” she said.

“Political will is a key factor of success – it’s impossible otherwise,” agreed Gabriel Labbate, head of climate change mitigation at the United Nations forests programme UNREDD, which was not involved in today’s report.

Other countries, including Brazil, have seen success in the past with similar approaches, but started to see losses increase again in 2014 following a change in government policies.

Prof Hansen said that although the progress in South East Asia was positive, the fluctuations in forest loss in Brazil show that protection policies have to be consistent.

“The key we haven’t seen yet is sustained success in reducing and maintaining low levels of conversion of these ecosystems and if you were interested in conserving the environment you have to win always and forever,” he told BBC News.

The researchers agree that this year’s UN climate summit COP30 – which is being hosted in the Amazon – will be critical for sharing and promoting forest protection schemes.

One proposal is to reward countries which maintain tropical forests through payments. The detail is still to be worked out but has promise, according to Rod Taylor.

“I think it’s an example of an innovation that addresses one of the fundamental issues that at the moment there’s more money to be made by chopping forests down than keeping them standing,” he said.

Graphics by Erwan Rivault

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Fish similar to those made famous by the movie Finding Nemo are shrinking to cope with marine heatwaves, a study has found.

The research recorded clownfish living on coral reefs slimmed down drastically when ocean temperatures rocketed in 2023.

Scientists say the discovery was a big surprise and could help explain the rapidly declining size of other fish in the world’s oceans.

A growing body of evidence suggests animals are shape shifting to cope with climate change, including birds, lizards and insects.

“Nemos can shrink, and they do it to survive these heat stress events,” said Dr Theresa Rueger, senior lecturer in Tropical Marine Sciences at Newcastle University.

The researchers studied pairs of clownfish living in reefs off Kimbe Bay in Papua New Guinea, a hot spot of marine biodiversity

The wild clownfish are almost identical to the ones depicted in the movie Finding Nemo, in which a timid clownfish living off the Great Barrier Reef goes in search of his son.

The scientific study took place in the summer of 2023, when temperatures shot up in the oceans, leading to large swathes of coral turning white.

The scientists took multiple measurements of individual clownfish coping with the heat.

They found the tiny fish didn’t just lose weight but got shorter by several millimetres. And it wasn’t a one-off – 75% of fish shrunk at least once during the heatwave.

Dr Rueger explained: “It’s not just them going on a diet and losing lots of weight, but they’re actively changing their size and making themselves into a smaller individual that needs less food and is more efficient with oxygen.”

The fish may be absorbing fat and bone, as has been seen in other animals, such as marine iguanas, although this needs to be confirmed through laboratory studies.

Dr Rueger joked that a little bit of movie rewriting might be necessary, with a new chapter ahead for Nemo.

“The movie told a really good story, but the next chapter of the story surely is, how does Nemo deal with ongoing environmental change?” she told BBC News.

Global warming is a big challenge for warm-blooded animals, which must maintain a constant body temperature to prevent their bodies from overheating.

Animals are responding in various ways: moving to cooler areas or higher ground, changing the timing of key life events such as breeding and migration, or switching their body size.

The research is published in the journal, Science Advances.

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Temperatures in the seas around the UK and Ireland have soared in the past week with some areas now 4C warmer than normal, with potential implications for marine life and people going swimming.

The heatwave is most intense off the west coast of Ireland as well as pockets off the coasts of Cornwall and Devon, according to scientists at the National Oceanography Centre and the Met Office.

Sea temperatures in April and the first half of May were the highest recorded during those months since monitoring began 45 years ago.

Climate change is causing oceans to warm around the globe and is making marine heatwaves like this one more likely.

Scientists expect 2025 to be one of the hottest years on record for air temperatures.

“It’s super intense at the moment. The marine heatwave has really soared this week,” says Dr Ségolène Berthou at the Met Office.

The entire west coast of the UK is now about 2.5C above average. A large portion of Scottish waters are 2-3C warmer than usual for the time of year.

In one location, just off Tyne and Tees, temperatures are 5C higher than average, according to the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science.

Dr Zoe Jacobs, who is based at the National Oceanography Centre, first noticed the unusual marine temperatures a few weeks ago. She found that pockets of the UK had been coming in and out of a mild heatwave since late 2024. That heat intensified and spread in March and has now surged.

A marine heatwave is defined as sea temperatures that exceed the seasonal threshold for more than five consecutive days. In the UK the marine heatwave threshold for May is 11.3C.

On 19 May the average sea surface temperature reached 12.69C.

“It started in the North Sea and the Celtic Sea. Now the North Sea has cooled down a bit but the west of Ireland is extremely hot,” says Dr Berthou.

One of the warmest springs on record is driving the surge, as high temperatures and weak winds warm the top layer of the ocean.

Marine heatwaves in the UK are thought to be a relatively new phenomenon but they are expected to increase in frequency and intensity.

It is still a bit of a mystery how exactly they will affect marine life, but the signs so far are not good.

“The interesting thing is that this started in winter and spring, when most people assume marine heatwaves are only in summer,” says Dr Jacobs.

People swimming off the west coast of the UK and Ireland may notice the warmer temperatures, although the waters are still cooler than at their peak in late summer.

The worst impacts on species are likely to have been avoided for now because the temperatures have not gone above the upper limit that marine life can tolerate, explains Dr Jacobs.

But it may be disrupting species’ breeding patterns and could bring an influx of jellyfish that like warmer waters, including the huge barrel jellyfish, to seas and beaches.

It could also cause harmful algae to grow out of control, creating wide patches of green algae that can poison other life.

“We will be watching closely to monitor the impacts of the current UK heatwave on marine life and fisheries,” John Pinnegar, Lead Advisor on Climate Change at the UK Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science.

Previous heatwaves have caused harmful blooms of algae and in 2018 caused mass mortality among mussels.

In 2023, jellyfish sightings increased by 32% following a marine heatwave with temperatures 3-4C above average.

The heat could also encourage different fish to move into UK waters, including the bluefin tuna, potentially increasing the amount of fish to catch.

Normally marine heatwaves last around two weeks, so scientists are surprised at how long this one is persisting.

“It is exceptional. We are about two and half months in, which is very long,” says Dr Berthou.

Higher sea temperatures can push up land temperatures too, as sea breezes carry the heat off the ocean.

That happened in May 2024 when a short marine heatwave contributed “significantly” to above-average land temperatures, according to the Met Office.

In some parts of the world – including Australia, the US and the Pacific – marine heatwaves can destroy coral reefs or local fisheries, as well as vital seagrass meadows.

The UK is usually more protected from these impacts because overall the waters are cooler. But scientists still don’t know very much about them and have a lot more to discover.

A recent study led by Dr Jacobs found that the UK hotspots are the southern North Sea and the English channel, where heatwaves can last longer than other areas of the country.

Oceans have absorbed 90% of the excess heat created by humans burning fossil fuels, and as a result have warmed overall by 1C.

“Before we started having this exceptional weather this spring, the waters were already in a hotter state,” says Dr Berthou.

In the North Atlantic, sea surface temperatures have been increasing by around 0.3C per decade over the last 40 years, according to the Met Office.

The long spell of warm, dry weather is expected to break slightly this weekend.

“The ocean lags behind the atmosphere by at least a few days, so it might be that into next week we might start to see the ocean cooling off,” says Dr Jacobs.

But she says that this might be just a “temporary dip” as the longer-range forecast suggests the weather will warm up again.

Graphics by Erwan Rivault

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The coming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be busier than usual, US science agency NOAA has warned, just as cuts to American research are raising fears about the ability to track and prepare for these often deadly storms.

Between six and 10 hurricanes are forecast for the Atlantic between June and November, compared with the typical seven.

Warmer sea temperatures – made more likely by climate change – and generally favourable atmospheric conditions, are behind the forecast.

Several scientists have told the BBC that widespread firings by President Donald Trump’s administration of government researchers could endanger efforts to monitor hurricanes and predict where they might hit.

Today’s 2025 Atlantic season outlook covers the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, called the Gulf of America by the Trump administration.

In total NOAA expects between 13 and 19 named tropical storms. Of these, between six and 10 could become hurricanes, including three to five major ones – meaning they reach category three or above (111mph or 178km/h).

That’s not as many as last year’s very active season, which saw 18 tropical storms including 11 hurricanes of which five were major hurricanes.

But it’s more than the long-term average of 14 named tropical storms a year, of which seven are usually hurricanes, with three major ones among them.

Climate change is not expected to increase the number of these storms globally. But a warming planet is thought to increase the chances of them reaching the highest wind speeds, bringing heavier rainfall and a higher likelihood of coastal flooding.

This year’s above average forecast is expected for two main reasons.

Firstly, sea surface temperatures are above average across most of the tropical Atlantic, although they are not as extreme as this time last year.

Warmer seas provide the fuel source for hurricane growth as they track westwards across the Atlantic.

Secondly, the natural weather pattern known as El Niño – which makes it harder for Atlantic hurricanes to develop – is not expected this year, according to NOAA.

Neutral or weak La Niña conditions – which favour Atlantic hurricanes – are considered more likely, though this early on it is difficult to say.

Other conditions have to be right for hurricanes to develop, and those aren’t possible to predict months in advance.

Localised air movements and even the amount of dust in the atmosphere can play important roles in shaping whether these storms develop or not.

“We can’t really predict all that stuff this far out,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist at Colorado State University, which has also predicted an above-average season.

But NOAA’s pre-season forecast is still giving scientists cause for concern – and not just because of the meteorological backdrop.

Since the beginning of President Trump’s second term, hundreds of NOAA staff have been laid off, with the aim of cutting US government spending and costs to the taxpayer.

This has left the National Weather Service – NOAA’s weather forecasting and hazard-warning branch – critically understaffed ahead of the hurricane season, several scientists told the BBC.

“I know that the people remaining are trying their absolute hardest to provide accurate forecasts, but when you’re reduced to such few staff, it’s going to lead to burnout,” said Zack Labe, a climate scientist who was recently laid off by NOAA.

The office in Houston for example – Texas is particularly vulnerable to hurricanes – is effectively without its top three management positions.

Other offices are struggling to maintain 24/7 operations. Experts with contacts at NOAA told the BBC of battles to get basic maintenance over the line, from computer systems to toilets.

US media widely reported last week that the National Weather Service was seeking to fill more than 150 key vacancies – from other positions within NOAA due to a ban on hiring new staff – ahead of the hurricane season.

BBC News has been unable to independently verify these reports, and has reached out to NOAA and the White House. Neither have responded to requests for comment.

“It’s a huge problem, and it is a growing problem, and it is a problem that will likely, unless it is immediately resolved, become life threatening during severe weather events,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles.

He said he feared the cuts so far were just “the tip of the iceberg”.

Staffing cuts could also threaten “hurricane hunter” flights – plane journeys into the storms as they approach land to inform preparations for landfall.

And scientists have spoken of other reductions in atmospheric observations, such as weather balloon launches, with the Trump administration reportedly attempting to cut anything related to “climate”.

Hurricane forecasts have generally become more accurate over time, but there are fears that these cuts could put that progress at risk.

“Less data means a worse forecast,” warned Matt Lanza, a Houston-based meteorologist.

“I’m especially concerned about hurricane season because a lot of the steering mechanisms that direct hurricanes are governed by what’s happening thousands of feet up,” he added.

“And if we’re not collecting data in important places, then I think that risks your hurricane forecast suffering.”

It’s difficult to say whether this will become apparent this year – a lot will depend on exactly where and when hurricanes hit.

But it also has potential implications for weather forecasting further afield in the world, which the Trump administration argues has become too reliant on the US.

“You need good information on the state of the atmosphere and the oceans from the whole world to make weather forecasts for any given location on Earth,” warned Dr Swain.

“The impacts [of cuts to NOAA] are most concentrated in the United States, but will eventually cascade beyond the US should they continue at their current level or further expand.”

In a press conference, NOAA acting administrator Laura Grimm said that NOAA had the best scientists and continued to make advances in forecasting, and remained committed to protecting the public.

Additional reporting by Phil Leake

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The Prince of Wales has described Sir David Attenborough as a “big inspiration” to him growing up, and the motivation behind his new wildlife documentary highlighting the work of rangers.

In an unexpected appearance at a screening earlier this week, Prince William credited the veteran nature presenter with “being able to present wonderful parts of the world to many of us most of us will never get a chance to visit”.

He said he hoped his new six-part series, called Guardians, “does the same kind of thing”.

The prince and Sir David share a passion for conserving the natural world, and have supported each other’s projects in the field.

The heir to the throne has attended screenings of the broadcaster’s documentaries privately, while Sir David has been a champion of Prince William’s environmentally focused Earthshot Prize since its inception.

Now taking a lead from the 99-year-old host of Ocean and Planet Earth, the prince said his new series “reminds people that there are still wonderful parts of the world and there is still hope, and there’s still amazing work being done”.

He surprised those attending the screening of the series when he walked into a central London hotel and sat with journalists to watch the first three episodes.

Guardians will focus on how the work of rangers – who protect endangered animals whose role has become significantly more risky. Around 1,400 rangers have died in the past decade.

“This is now one of the most dangerous jobs on the planet,” the prince told reporters.

“It shouldn’t be. Protecting the natural world shouldn’t be that dangerous.

“Being a soldier, a police officer, the emergency services – these jobs are dangerous, people put their lives on the line.

“I don’t think people realise it’s the same for these guys and girls around the world.”

He attributed the increased threat to “community conflicts or civil wars, or illegal fishing, or poaching – whatever it might be is just spreading further and further across the globe”.

A spokesperson for the prince said he turned up to emphasise the importance of the series to him on a personal level.

“The project was driven by him,” the spokesperson told the BBC. “He wanted to show the incredible work rangers do for people around the world.”

Each episode will feature an on-screen introduction by Prince William, who also appears in a trailer for the project.

The prince also spoke about the challenge of recruiting the next generation of rangers.

He said: “They ask, why would I do that? Why would I go and risk my life to do that? No one seems to notice and no one seems to care. I’m not necessarily paid enough, I’m not valued enough by society.”

Prince William stressed that rangers “do so much more than just protecting wildlife”.

“It’s about the community initiatives they do, it’s the education, it’s the teaching, the scientific research,” he said.

“And if we are to reach our goals, and we do generally as a world care about the natural environment, then we need more of these guys and girls.”

Rangers are tasked with overseeing natural areas and the wildlife within them, but increasingly have to fend off poachers, who seek to traffic or kill animals – such as elephants, tigers and rhinos – that have body parts prized by some.

Poachers can be armed and encounters with rangers can prove fatal. In the year to May 2024, 38 out of 140 deaths were homicides, according to the International Ranger Federation (IRF).

In November, the prince announced a new life insurance scheme to cover 10,000 rangers who safeguard Africa’s wildlife.

The screening was also attended by Rohit Singh, vice-president of the IRF, who described rangers as “essential planetary health workers” and echoed the Prince’s concerns.

He said: “One statistic that always comes to my mind is that 82% of rangers say they don’t want their kids to become rangers – so if we don’t change this, how are we going to get more rangers?

“There are more hairdressers in the UK than there are rangers in the world’s protected areas.”

The first episode of the series, launched by the Royal Foundation’s United for Wildlife and co-produced by Zandland, is available from Friday on BBC Earth’s YouTube and social channels, with a new episode released every Friday.

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The moment that Oceangate’s Titan submersible was lost has been revealed in footage recorded on the sub’s support ship.

Titan imploded about 90 minutes into a descent to see the wreck of the Titanic in June 2023, killing all five people on board.

The passengers had paid Oceangate to see the ship, which lies 3,800m down.

On board were Oceangate’s CEO Stockton Rush, British explorer Hamish Harding, veteran French diver Paul Henri Nargeolet, the British-Pakistani businessman Shahzada Dawood and his 19-year-old son Suleman.

The BBC has had unprecedented access to the US Coast Guard’s (USCG) investigation for a documentary, Implosion: The Titanic Sub Disaster.

The footage was recently obtained by the USCG and shows Wendy Rush, the wife of Mr Rush, hearing the sound of the implosion while watching on from the sub’s support ship and asking: “What was that bang?”

The video has been presented as evidence to the USCG Marine Board of Investigation, which has spent the last two years looking into the sub’s catastrophic failure.

The documentary also reveals the carbon fibre used to build the submersible started to break apart a year before the fatal dive.

Titan’s support ship was with the sub while it was diving in the Atlantic Ocean. The video shows Mrs Rush, who was a director of Oceangate with her husband, sitting in front of a computer that was used to send and receive text messages from Titan.

When the sub reaches a depth of about 3,300m, a noise that sounds like a door slamming is heard. Mrs Rush is seen to pause then look up and ask other Oceangate crew members what the noise was.

Within moments she then receives a text message from the sub saying it had dropped two weights, which seems to have led her to mistakenly think the dive was proceeding as expected.

The USCG says the noise was in fact the sound of Titan imploding. However, the text message, which must have been sent just before the sub failed, took longer to reach the ship than the sound of the implosion.

All five people on board Titan died instantly.

Prior to the fatal dive, warnings had been raised by deep sea experts and some former Oceangate employees about Titan’s design. One described it as an “abomination” and said the disaster was “inevitable”.

Titan had never undergone an independent safety assessment, known as certification, and a key concern was that its hull – the main body of the sub where the passengers sat – was made of layers of carbon fibre mixed with resin.

The USCG says it has now identified the moment the hull started to fail.

Carbon fibre is a highly unusual material for a deep sea submersible because it is unreliable under pressure. A known problem is that the layers of carbon fibre can separate, a process called delamination.

The USCG believes that the carbon fibre layers of the hull started to break apart during a dive to the Titanic, which took place a year before the disaster – the 80th dive that Titan had made.

Passengers on board reported hearing a loud bang as the sub made its way back to the surface. They said that at the time Mr Rush said that this noise was the sub shifting in its frame.

But the USCG says the data collected from sensors fitted to Titan shows that the bang was caused by delamination.

“Delamination at dive 80 was the beginning of the end,” said Lieutenant Commander Katie Williams from USCG.

“And everyone that stepped onboard the Titan after dive 80 was risking their life.”

Titan took passengers on three more dives in the summer of 2022 – two to the Titanic and one to a nearby reef, before it failed on its next deep dive, in June 2023.

Businessman Oisin Fanning was onboard Titan for the last two dives before the disaster.

“If you’re asking a simple question: ‘Would I go again knowing what I know now?’ – the answer is no,” he told BBC News.

“A lot of people would not have gone. Very intelligent people who lost their lives, who, had they had all the facts, would not have made that journey.”

Deep sea explorer Victor Vescovo said he had grave misgivings about Titan and that he had told people that diving in the sub was like playing Russian roulette.

“I myself warned people away from getting into that submersible. I specifically told them that it was simply a matter of time before it failed catastrophically. I told Stockton Rush himself that I believed that.”

After the sub imploded, its mangled wreckage was discovered scattered across the sea floor of the Atlantic.

The USCG has described the process of sifting through the recovered debris – and said clothing from Mr Rush had been found, as well as business cards and stickers of the Titanic.

Later this year, the US Coast Guard will publish a final report of the findings from its investigation, which aims to establish what went wrong and prevent a disaster like this from ever happening again.

Speaking to the BBC’s documentary team, Christine Dawood, who lost her husband Shahzada and son Suleman in the disaster, said it had changed her forever.

“I don’t think that anybody who goes through loss and such a trauma can ever be the same,” she said.

The ripples from the Oceangate disaster are likely to continue for years – some private lawsuits have already been filed and criminal prosecutions may follow.

Oceangate told the BBC: “We again offer our deepest condolences to the families of those who died on June 18, 2023, and to all those impacted by the tragic accident.

“Since the tragedy occurred, Oceangate permanently wound down its operations and focused its resources on fully cooperating with the investigations. It would be inappropriate to respond further while we await the agencies’ reports.”

You can watch Implosion: The Titanic Sub Disaster on 9pm on Tuesday 27 May on BBC Two. It will also be available on the BBC iPlayer.

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